Description: This actuarial memorandum represents the first, formal actuarial opinion regarding the reasonableness of the premium estimates the Clinton Administration presented with its proposed Health Security Act. The memorandum presents the assumptions and methods used to develop an average 1994 premium estimate for the standard benefit package.

Description: This paper solves the pension benefit allocation problem using an extremely simple accounting approach. It presents a simple accounting argument, which says that the cost for like units of production should increase at the rate of inflation. If we assume that the appropriate units of production for an employee are inflation-adjusted salary, this rationale leads to projected unit credit with the benefit apportioned by interest-adjusted salary [PUCIAS] as the appropriate funding method for pensions. This same rationale can be extended to post-service medical care funding. For post-service medical care, however, the rationale does not lead to PUCIAS, since the rates of inflation for medical care and salary do not cancel. There is also a question whether inflation-adjusted salary should be used as the units of production for post-service medical care. When it is, it is still important avoid aggregating groups with different salary and promotion patterns. When it is not, the widget accounting arguments still hold as far unit costs increasing with the rate of medical care inflation.

Description: This presentation from the 1998 Actuarial Research Conference is about about retirement plans in the late 1990's. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1999, Vol. 1.

Description: Abstract from a paper that describes results from a hierarchical Bayesian statistical model which predicts the probability of Non-Acceptable Claim, an unnecessary hospital stay, using hospital discharge claim records as inputs.

Description: This paper suggests that many problems in health insurance pricing can be solved by requiring a minimum mandatory paid-up period [i.e., premium period shorter than insurance period], and by encouraging insureds to persist by providing them adequate pricing information. This will generate significant investment income for insuring programs and reduce the cost of insurance.

Description: This paper proposes a model for the incurred but not reported - IBNR- claims of an insurance company. This model will be fit to third party automobile bodily injury claims for which the months and years of occurrence of the accident are available. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990 VOL. 1

Description: In this paper the authors analyze data from group medical expense insurance claims and show that many insurance loss distributions have very 'heavy tails' because large losses represent a disproportionate fraction of the total cost. They also present a simple model to reproduce and explain the large loss behavior. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990, VOL. 2

Description: This Fellowship credit research paper describes the use of fuzzy sets applications to the selection of group health risks. In general, fuzzy set theory is implemented to describe collections of objects whose boundaries are not precisely defined, as in the judgment of what constitutes a good risk group. First, single-plan underwriting is considered, then the work is extended to multiple-option plans.

Description: This paper presents a multi-state stochastic model for analyzing continuing care retirement community CCRC populations. The model considers CCRCs with a number of independent living units and a skilled nursing facility. Residents may transfer temporarily or permanently to this facility. It is assumed that units vacated by deaths, withdrawals or permanent transfers are immediately occupied by new residents. Transfers are modeled using a time-homogeneous Markov process. The paper provides some probabilistic results and some numerical results obtained using this model. Some important generalizations of the model are also briefly discussed.

Description: There is growing evidence of a positive correlation between income levels and longevity. In short, high-income earners live longer. That also means that high-income earners get larger retirement-income security benefits from Social Security. This correlation raises a number of questions: if Social Security contributions are a level percentage of earnings, and high-income earners live longer and receive larger Social Security benefits, then is Social Security regressive? If higher-income actually causes enhanced longevity, then would providing more Social Security benefits enhance population life expectancy? This paper analyzes both the OASDI system of the United States and the Canada/Quebec Pension Plans in Canada to see if these systems are 'a good deal' and whether they are regressive or progressive as defined above. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1998 Vol. 1.